Oded yinon strategy for israel 1980 free pdf download

A sad and very stormy situation surrounds Israel and creates challenges for it, problems, risks but also far-reaching opportunities for the first time since Chances are that opportunities missed at that time will become achievable in the Eighties to an extent and along dimensions which we cannot even imagine today. Since , all the governments of Israel have tied our national aims down to narrow political needs, on the one hand, and on the other to destructive opinions at home which neutralized our capacities both at home and abroad.

Failing to take steps towards the Arab population in the new territories, acquired in the course of a war forced upon us, is the major strategic error committed by Israel on the morning after the Six Day War. We could have saved ourselves all the bitter and dangerous conflict since then if we had given Jordan to the Palestinians who live west of the Jordan river. By doing that we would have neutralized the Palestinian problem which we nowadays face, and to which we have found solutions that are really no solutions at all, such as territorial compromise or autonomy which amount, in fact, to the same thing.

The loss of the Suez Canal oil fields, of the immense potential of the oil, gas and other natural resources in the Sinai peninsula which is geomorphologically identical to the rich oil-producing countries in the region, will result in an energy drain in the near future and will destroy our domestic economy: one quarter of our present GNP as well as one third of the budget is used for the purchase of oil.

The fault for that lies of course with the present Israeli government and the governments which paved the road to the policy of territorial compromise, the Alignment governments since The Egyptians will not need to keep the peace treaty after the return of the Sinai, and they will do all they can to return to the fold of the Arab world and to the USSR in order to gain support and military assistance.

American aid is guaranteed only for a short while, for the terms of the peace and the weakening of the U. Without oil and the income from it, with the present enormous expenditure, we will not be able to get through under the present conditions and we will have to act in order to return the situation to the status quo which existed in Sinai prior to Sadat's visit and the mistaken peace agreement signed with him in March The direct option is the less realistic one because of the nature of the regime and government in Israel as well as the wisdom of Sadat who obtained our withdrawal from Sinai, which was, next to the war of , his major achievement since he took power.

Israel will not unilaterally break the treaty, neither today, nor in , unless it is very hard pressed economically and politically and Egypt provides Israel with the excuse to take the Sinai back into our hands for the fourth time in our short history. What is left therefore, is the indirect option.

The economic situation in Egypt, the nature of the regime and its pan-Arab policy, will bring about a situation after April in which Israel will be forced to act directly or indirectly in order to regain control over Sinai as a strategic, economic and energy reserve for the long run. Egypt does not constitute a military strategic problem due to its internal conflicts and it could be driven back to the post war situation in no more than one day.

Egypt is no longer the leading political power in the Arab World and is economically on the verge of a crisis. Without foreign assistance the crisis will come tomorrow. Egypt, in its present domestic political picture, is already a corpse, all the more so if we take into account the growing Moslem-Christian rift.

Breaking Egypt down territorially into distinct geographical regions is the political aim of Israel in the Nineteen Eighties on its Western front. If Egypt falls apart, countries like Libya, Sudan or even the more distant states will not continue to exist in their present form and will join the downfall and dissolution of Egypt. The vision of a Christian Coptic State in Upper Egypt alongside a number of weak states with very localized power and without a centralized government as to date, is the key to a historical development which was only set back by the peace agreement but which seems inevitable in the long run.

Lebanon's total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track.

The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target.

Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan.

This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today.

Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us.

Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon.

So, three or more states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi'ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.

Regardless of whether its economic might based on oil remains intact or whether it is diminished in the long run, the internal rifts and breakdowns are a clear and natural development in light of the present political structure.

Changing the regime east of the river will also cause the termination of the problem of the territories densely populated with Arabs west of the Jordan. Whether in war or under conditions of peace, emigrationfrom the territories and economic demographic freeze in them, are the guarantees for the coming change on both banks of the river, and we ought to be active in order to accelerate this process in the nearest future.

The autonomy plan ought also to be rejected, as well as any compromise or division of the territories for, given the plans of the PLO and those of the Israeli Arabs themselves, the Shefa'amr plan of September , it is not possible to go on living in this country in the present situation without separating the two nations, the Arabs to Jordan and the Jews to the areas west of the river.

Genuine coexistence and peace will reign over the land only when the Arabs understand that without Jewish rule between the Jordan and the sea they will have neither existence nor security. A nation of their own and security will be theirs only in Jordan. The problem should be seen in its entirety without any divisions as of ' It should be clear, under any future political situation or mifitary constellation, that the solution of the problem of the indigenous Arabs will come only when they recognize the existence of Israel in secure borders up to the Jordan river and beyond it, as our existential need in this difficult epoch, the nuclear epoch which we shall soon enter.

It is no longer possible to live with three fourths of the Jewish population on the dense shoreline which is so dangerous in a nuclear epoch. Judea, Samaria and the Galilee are our sole guarantee for national existence, and if we do not become the majority in the mountain areas, we shall not rule in the country and we shall be like the Crusaders, who lost this country which was not theirs anyhow, and in which they were foreigners to begin with.

Rebalancing the country demographically, strategically and economically is the highest and most central aim today. Taking hold of the mountain watershed from Beersheba to the Upper Galilee is the national aim generated by the major strategic consideration which is settling the mountainous part of the country that is empty of Jews today.

The transformation of the political and economic structure, so as to enable the realization of these strategic aims, is the key to achieving the entire change. We need to change from a centralized economy in which the government is extensively involved, to an open and free market as well as to switch from depending upon the U.

If we are not able to make this change freely and voluntarily, we shall be forced into it by world developments, especially in the areas of economics, energy, and politics, and by our own growing isolation.

We cannot assume that U. Jews, and the communities of Europe and Latin America will continue to exist in the present form in the future. Despite the difficulties of the mistaken "peace" policy and the problem of the Israeli Arabs and those of the territories, we can effectively deal with these problems in the foreseeable future.

It is assumed that the Israeli military forces, in all their branches, are insufficient for the actual work of occupation of such wide territories as discussed above. In fact, even in times of intense Palestinian "unrest" on the West Bank, the forces of the Israeli Army are stretched out too much. The answer to that is the method of ruling by means of "Haddad forces" or of "Village Associations" also known as "Village Leagues" : local forces under "leaders" completely dissociated from the population, not having even any feudal or party structure such as the Phalangists have, for example.

The "states" proposed by Yinon are "Haddadland" and "Village Associations," and their armed forces will be, no doubt, quite similar. In addition, Israeli military superiority in such a situation will be much greater than it is even now, so that any movement of revolt will be "punished" either by mass humiliation as in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, or by bombardment and obliteration of cities, as in Lebanon now June , or by both.

Africa, in which the majority of world minerals are located. We can imagine. The Gorshkov doctrine calls for Soviet control of the oceans and mineral rich areas of the. Third World. That together with the present Soviet nuclear doctrine which holds that it is. Since , the Soviets have. Already today they are busy carrying. That is our major foreign challenge. The Arab Moslem world, therefore, is not the major strategic problem which we shall face. This world, with its ethnic minorities, its factions and internal crises,.

In the long run, this world will. The Moslem Arab World is built like a temporary. It was. Arabs, million out of million, live in Africa, mostly in Egypt 45 million today. Apart from Egypt, all the Maghreb states are made up of a mixture of Arabs and non-Arab. In Algeria there is already a civil war raging in the Kabile mountains between the. Morocco and Algeria are at war with each other over Spanish. Sahara, in addition to the internal struggle in each of them. Militant Islam endangers the.

That is why he has been attempting unifications in the past with states that are. Sudan, the most torn apart state in the Arab Moslem. In Egypt there. Egypt: some 7 million of them, so that even Sadat, in his speech on May 8, expressed the. All the Arab States east of Israel are torn apart, broken up and riddled with inner conflict. Syria is fundamentally no different from Lebanon. But the real civil war taking place.

Sixty-five percent of the population has no say in politics, in. In addition there is a large Kurdish minority. Syria today. The seeds of inner conflict and civil war are apparent today already, especially.

All the Gulf principalities and Saudi Arabia are built upon a delicate house of sand in which. In Kuwait, the Kuwaitis constitute only a quarter of the population. In Bahrain,. The same is true of Oman and North Yemen. In Saudi Arabia half. Jordan is in reality Palestinian, ruled by a Trans-Jordanian Bedouin minority, but most of the.

As a matter of fact Amman is as. Palestinian as Nablus. All of these countries have powerful armies, relatively speaking. The Syrian army today is mostly Sunni with an Alawi officer. This has great significance in the long. Alongside the Arabs, split as they are, the other Moslem states share a similar predicament.

In Sunni Pakistan. This national ethnic minority picture extending from Morocco to India and from Somalia. When this picture is added to the economic one, we see how the entire. In this giant and fractured world there are a few wealthy groups and a huge mass of. Most of the Arabs have an average yearly income of dollars. That is the. It is a state in which there is no centralized. Syria is in an even graver situation and even the.

Egypt is in the worst situation: Millions are on the verge of hunger, half the labor force. Except for the army, there is not a single department operating efficiently and the state is. A sad and very stormy situation surrounds Israel. Chances are that opportunities missed at that time will become achievable.

Since , all the governments of Israel. Failing to take steps towards the Arab population in the new territories, acquired. We could have saved ourselves all the bitter and.

By doing that we would have neutralized the Palestinian problem which. Today, we suddenly face immense opportunities for transforming the situation thoroughly. In the course of the Nineteen Eighties, the State of Israel will have to go through far-reaching. The loss of the Suez Canal oil fields, of the immense potential of the oil, gas and other.

Negev and on the coast will not, in the near future, serve to alter that state of affairs. Regaining the Sinai peninsula with its present and potential resources is therefore a political. The fault for that. Egyptians will not need to keep the peace treaty after the return of the Sinai, and they.

American aid is guaranteed only for a short while, for. Without oil and the income from it, with the present enormous. Israel has two major routes through which to realize this purpose, one direct and the other. The direct option is the less realistic one because of the nature of the regime and.

Sinai, which was, next to the war of , his major achievement since he took power. Israel will not unilaterally break the treaty, neither today, nor in , unless it is very hard.

Sinai back into our hands for the fourth time in our short history. What is left therefore, is. The economic situation in Egypt, the nature of the regime and its pan-. Arab policy, will bring about a situation after April in which Israel will be forced to act. Egypt does not constitute a military strategic problem due to its. The myth of Egypt as the strong leader of the Arab World was demolished back in Egypt is no longer the leading political power in the Arab World and is economically on the.

Without foreign assistance the crisis will come tomorrow. Egypt, in its present domestic political. Breaking Egypt down territorially into distinct geographical regions is the. Egypt is divided and torn apart into many foci of authority. If Egypt falls apart, countries. The vision of a Christian Coptic. State in Upper Egypt alongside a number of weak states with very localized power and. The Western front, which on the surface appears more problematic, is in fact less complicated.

The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious. Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus. Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the. Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate.

Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even.

Every kind of inter-Arab. In Iraq, a division. So, three or more states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and.

It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization. The entire Arabian peninsula is a natural candidate for dissolution due to internal and. Regardless of. Jordan constitutes an immediate strategic target in the short run but not in the long run, for. There is no chance that Jordan will continue to exist in its present structure for a long time,.

Jordan under the present regime and the transfer of power to the Palestinian majority. Changing the regime east of the river will also cause the termination of the problem of.

Whether in war or under. The autonomy plan. September , it is not possible to go on living in this country in the present situation. Genuine coexistence and peace will reign over the land only when the Arabs. A nation of their own and security will be theirs only in Jordan. The problem should be seen in its entirety without any divisions as of. It should be clear, under any future political situation or military constellation, that the. It is no longer possible. Dispersal of the population is therefore a domestic strategic aim of the highest order; otherwise,.

Judea, Samaria and the Galilee are our sole. Rebalancing the country demographically, strategically and economically is the highest and. Taking hold of the mountain watershed from Beersheba to the. Upper Galilee is the national aim generated by the major strategic consideration which. Realizing our aims on the Eastern front depends first on the realization of this internal strategic. The transformation of the political and economic structure, so as to enable the. We need to. That is the situation in Egypt, in most of the Maghreb countries except for Libya, and in Iraq.

Lebanon is torn apart and its economy is falling to pieces. Syria is in an even graver situation and even the assistance she will obtain in the future after the unification with Libya will not be sufficient for dealing with the basic problems of existence and the maintenance of a large army. Egypt is in the worst situation: Millions are on the verge of hunger, half the labor force is unemployed, and housing is scarce in this most densely populated area of the world.

Except for the army, there is not a single department operating efficiently and the state is in a permanent state of bankruptcy and depends entirely on American foreign assistance granted since the peace. In the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Egypt there is the largest accumulation of money and oil in the world, but those enjoying it are tiny elites who lack a wide base of support and self-confidence, something that no army can guarantee.

A sad and very stormy situation surrounds Israel and creates challenges for it, problems, risks but also far-reaching opportunities for the first time since Chances are that opportunities missed at that time will become achievable in the Eighties to an extent and along dimensions which we cannot even imagine today.

Since , all the governments of Israel have tied our national aims down to narrow political needs, on the one hand, and on the other to destructive opinions at home which neutralized our capacities both at home and abroad. Failing to take steps towards the Arab population in the new territories, acquired in the course of a war forced upon us, is the major strategic error committed by Israel on the morning after the Six Day War.

We could have saved ourselves all the bitter and dangerous conflict since then if we had given Jordan to the Palestinians who live west of the Jordan river. By doing that we would have neutralized the Palestinian problem which we nowadays face, and to which we have found solutions that are really no solutions at all, such as territorial compromise or autonomy which amount, in fact, to the same thing. In the course of the Nineteen Eighties, the State of Israel will have to go through far-reaching changes in its political and economic regime domestically, along with radical changes in its foreign policy, in order to stand up to the global and regional challenges of this new epoch.

The loss of the Suez Canal oil fields, of the immense potential of the oil, gas and other natural resources in the Sinai peninsula which is geomorphologically identical to the rich oil-producing countries in the region, will result in an energy drain in the near future and will destroy our domestic economy: one quarter of our present GNP as well as one third of the budget is used for the purchase of oil. Regaining the Sinai peninsula with its present and potential resources is therefore a political prioritywhich is obstructed by the Camp David and the peace agreements.

The fault for that lies of course with the present Israeli government and the governments which paved the road to the policy of territorial compromise, the Alignment governments since The Egyptians will not need to keep the peace treaty after the return of the Sinai, and they will do all they can to return to the fold of the Arab world and to the USSR in order to gain support and military assistance.

American aid is guaranteed only for a short while, for the terms of the peace and the weakening of the U. Israel has two major routes through which to realize this purpose, one direct and the other indirect. The direct option is the less realistic one because of the nature of the regime and government in Israel as well as the wisdom of Sadat who obtained our withdrawal from Sinai, which was, next to the war of , his major achievement since he took power.

Israel will not unilaterally break the treaty, neither today, nor in , unless it is very hard pressed economically and politically and Egypt provides Israelwith the excuse to take the Sinai back into our hands for the fourth time in our short history. What is left therefore, is the indirect option. The economic situation in Egypt, the nature of the regime and its pan-.

Arab policy, will bring about a situation after April in which Israel will be forced to act directly or indirectly in order to regain control over Sinai as a strategic, economic and energy reserve for the longrun. Egypt does not constitute a military strategic problem due to its internal conflicts and it could be driven back to the post war situation in no more than one day.

Egypt is no longer the leading political power in the Arab World and is economically on the verge of a crisis. Without foreign assistance the crisis will come tomorrow. Egypt, in its present domestic political picture, is already a corpse, all the more so if we take into account the growing Moslem-Christian rift.

BreakingEgypt down territorially into distinct geographical regions is the political aim of Israel in the Nineteen Eighties on its Western front. Egypt is divided and torn apart into many foci of authority. If Egypt falls apart, countries like Libya, Sudan or even the more distant states will not continue to exist in their present form and will join thedownfall and dissolution of Egypt. The vision of a Christian Coptic State in Upper Egypt alongside a number of weak states with very localized power and without a centralized government as to date, is the key to a historical development which was only set back by the peace agreement but which seems inevitable in the long run.

The Western front, which on the surface appears more problematic, is in fact less complicated than the Eastern front, in which most of the events that make the headlines have been taking place recently. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria.

In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us. Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and willshorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon.

It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization. The entire Arabian peninsula is a natural candidate for dissolution due to internal and external pressures, and the matter is inevitable especially in Saudi Arabia. Regardless of whether its economic might based on oil remains intact or whether it is diminished in the long run, the internal rifts and breakdowns are a clear and natural development in light of the present political structure.

Jordan constitutes an immediate strategic target in the short run but not in the long run, for it does not constitute a real threat in the long run after its dissolution , the termination of the lengthy rule of King Hussein and the transfer of power to the Palestinians in the short run. Changing the regime east of the river will also cause the termination of the problem of the territories densely populated with Arabs west of theJordan.

Whether in war or under conditions of peace, emigration from the territories and economic demographic freeze in them, are the guarantees for the coming change on both banks of the river, and we ought to be active in order to accelerate this process in the nearest future. Genuine coexistence and peace will reign over the land only when the Arabs understand that without Jewish rule between the Jordan and the sea they will have neither existence nor security.

A nation of their own and security will be theirs only in Jordan. It should be clear, under any future political situation or military constellation, that the solution of the problem of the indigenous Arabs will come only when they recognize the existence of Israel in secure borders up to the Jordan river andbeyond it, as our existential need in this difficult epoch, the nuclear epoch which we shall soon enter.

It is no longer possible to live with three fourths of the Jewish population on the dense shoreline which is so dangerous in a nuclear epoch. Dispersal of the population is therefore a domestic strategic aim of the highest order; otherwise, we shall cease to exist within any borders.

Judea, Samaria and the Galilee are our sole guarantee for national existence, and if we do not become the majority in the mountain areas, we shall not rule in the country and we shall be like the Crusaders, who lost this country which was not theirs anyhow, and in which they were foreigners to begin with. Rebalancing the country demographically, strategically and economically is the highest and most central aim today. Taking hold of the mountain watershed from Beersheba to the Upper Galilee is the national aim generated by the major strategic consideration which is settling the mountainous part of the country that is empty of Jews today.

Realizing our aims on the Eastern front depends first on the realization of this internal strategic objective.

The transformation of the political and economic structure, so as to enable the realization of these strategic aims, is the key to achieving the entire change. We need to change from a centralized economy in which the government is extensively involved, to an open and free market as well as to switch from depending upon the U. If we are not able to make this change freely and voluntarily, we shall be forced into it by world developments, especially in the areas of economics, energy, and politics, and by our own growing isolation.

From a military and strategic point of view, the West led by the U. Skip to search form Skip to main content Skip to account menu You are currently offline. Some features of the site may not work correctly. Yinon Published History The following essay represents, in my opinion, the accurate and detailed plan of the present Zionist regime of Sharon and Eitan for the Middle East which is based on the division of the whole area into small states, and the dissolution of all the existing Arab states.

I will comment on the military aspect of this plan in a concluding note. Here I want to draw the attention of the readers to several important points:. Save to Library Save.